Forecasting boreal vegetation dynamics: understory plants, state changes and biome shifts
I am co-organizing an upcoming Canadian Institute for Ecology and Evolution working group focused on improving our forecasting of boreal vegetation dynamics under climate change.
Boreal landcover change and implications for boreal caribou – using available tools
We are combining available boreal landcover change projections with available caribou indicators and road network simulation methods to develop an initial model of the cumulative effects of fire and forest management on boreal caribou for an example range in Western Ontario.
A population demography modeling tool to explore harvest management scenarios for the Fortymile caribou herd
We parameterized a DG-Sim demographic model for the Fortymile caribou herd using Bayesian methods, and used to tool to assist managers with analysis of alternative harvest scenarios.
rsyncrosim: The R interface to SyncroSim, a software framework for stochastic simulation modelling
How to measure the impacts of antibiotic resistance and antibiotic development on empiric therapy: new composite indices
Two indices summarize the impact of antibiotic resistance on empiric therapy, accounting for drug availability and pathogen importance. They can be calculated from cumulative antibiogram data, and used to assess trends, interventions and potential threats.
Benefits and unintended consequences of antimicrobial de-escalation
Inadequate empiric therapy delays recovery and increases mortality, and resistance threatens the effectiveness of empiric drugs. De-escalation strategies aim to minimize the use of empiric drugs by switching to narrow spectrum alternatives when lab results indicate susceptibility. We investigated the consequences of this strategy using simulation models.
The effects of forest spatial structure on insect outbreaks: insights from a host-parasitoid model
We investigated the effects of landscape configuration and other factors on a spatial model of host-parasitoid (forest tent caterpillar) population dynamics. We also developed a new approximation technique to simplify model analysis and parameter estimation.
Pollen cone production in jack pine: spatial and temporal patterns subject to natural disturbance by the jack pine budworm
We used generalized linear mixed regression models to distinguish effects of defoliation on pollen cone production from spatially synchronous background variation in cone production.
BCMPB: Mountain pine beetle projection model
I collaborated on modeling mountain pine beetle dynamics and management across British Columbia.